July 21, 2010
VANCOUVER – The mountain pine beetle epidemic that has spread through the B.C. interior over the past decade will reduce the province’s available timber supply over the next 20 years, resulting in the loss of forestry-supported jobs in the region and possible population outflows.
That’s the conclusion of an analysis by Central 1 Credit Union on the epidemic’s long-term impact, published today in the latest issue of Economic Analysis of British Columbia newsletter.
Through to 2028, Central 1 forecasts that net forestry-supported harvesting, silviculture, and processing jobs will decline by 11,250 person-years from the pre-infestation period. In turn, that could lead to the loss of a further 9,500 indirect and induced person-years of work, unless there are opportunities in alternative industries for displaced workers.
“The mountain pine beetle infestation is a long-term issue for B.C.’s forestry sector,” said Central 1 economist Bryan Yu. “Even as new home demand inevitably rises in the U.S. to demographically consistent levels, B.C.’s forest industry will increasingly face supply constraints as the available timber declines.”
Job losses are expected across the interior region, reflecting the large geographic reach of the current infestation. However, less economically diverse areas with higher proportions of pine are expected to bear the brunt of the impact, including the risk of population outflows.
Although direct forestry employment is expected to decline, losses will be tempered by continued expansion in the mining, energy and transportation industries.
“Demand for B.C. resources from Asian and other emerging markets, along with the ongoing transition to energy resources with lower carbon emissions, bode well for the future of mining and natural gas investment in B.C.,” said Yu. “In fact, billions of dollars worth of mining projects have already been proposed.”
Yu added: “As these resources are developed, affected workers will find alternative employment. But that could mean a shift in the interior’s population as workers are drawn to higher growth areas.”
For the full report, click here.
Contact:
Bryan Yu
Economist
604-742-5346 or 1-800-661-6813, ext. 5346