VANCOUVER – Seeing stronger than expected home sales and prices in B.C. this year, Central 1 Credit Union (Central 1) has raised its forecast for the next three years.
“We expect resale home transactions to ease 10 per cent in 2017 compared to our previous forecast of a 17 per cent decline and rebound in 2018 and 2019,” said Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Yu.
“A median price decline of 2.2 per cent this year will be due to a shift in sales away from Metro Vancouver to less expensive areas and the sale of fewer detached homes and luxury units in Vancouver, not an actual price decline. Prices will increase by 5.5 per cent in 2018 and 3.1 per cent in 2019,” Yu said.
House prices will keep increasing throughout the forecast period due in large part to a collapse in inventory over the past year, with expected gains driven by the Vancouver Island and Kelowna regions this year, before Metro Vancouver takes the lead again. Prices in northern B.C. will lag the rest of the province.
Housing demand continues to be driven by low interest rates, an expanding economy, population growth, demographic changes, and the desire for homeownership. Early 2017 sales are close to the 10-year average, following an exceptionally strong 2016, which makes year-over-year comparisons appear dire.
The lack of new listings has kept sales down and prices higher than expected, Yu said. Tighter mortgage insurance criteria for borrowers introduced late in 2016 have had less of an impact on the market than anticipated.
Read the report B.C. Housing Outlook 2017-2019
With offices in Vancouver, Mississauga and Toronto, Central 1 holds on balance sheet approximately $17.3 billion in assets. We provide wholesale financial products, trust services, payment processing solutions and direct banking services to about 300 credit unions and institutional clients from coast to coast.
In addition, Central 1 is the primary liquidity manager, payments provider and trade association for our 42 member credit unions in B.C. and 70 Ontario member credit unions. Our members represent a consumer-oriented, full-service retail financial system that collectively serves 3.3 million members and holds more than $116.8 billion in assets. For more information, visit www.central1.com.
Media Relations Manager
Central 1 Credit Union
T 905.282.8534 or 1.800.661.6813 ext. 8534
Deputy Chief Economist
Central 1 Credit Union
T 604.742.5346 or 1.800.661.6813 ext. 5346