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Ontario housing market will enjoy moderate recovery through 2018, says new Central 1 Credit Union forecast

TORONTO — Ontario home sales and prices will soon bottom and regain modest upward traction over the next three years, says a new forecast by Central 1 Credit Union (Central 1).

Recent provincial and federal efforts to cool the market have worked -- eroding consumer confidence and reducing investment -- which has led to sharp sales declines and lower prices, says the report, Ontario Housing Outlook 2017-2019, by Bryan Yu, Central 1’s Deputy Chief Economist.

“Toronto and areas within the Greater Golden Horseshoe region have experienced the brunt of the housing shock with relatively more stable conditions elsewhere in Ontario,” Yu says. “This abrupt market shift will prove temporary, but a rebound in sales and prices will be gradual and won’t get back to highs hit earlier this year.”

Provincial housing sales are forecast to decline eight per cent this year after tracking a double-digit growth trend early in the year and median prices will increase 7.7 per cent.

“The slower pace of activity will carry over into 2018, leading to slightly fewer annual sales and lower prices, before moving higher into 2019,” Yu says.

Highlights:

  • Housing starts will reach 73,500 units in 2017, before dipping to 68,200 units in 2018, then  rebounding to 74,600 units in 2019.
  • The current sales and price weakness will last three-to-six months.
  • The provincial median price will rise 7.7 per cent to $410,000 this year, decline 1.2 per cent to $405,000 in 2018, before rebounding six per cent to $430,000 in 2019.

“The Ontario economy remains strong and growing, interest rates are low, and the population is increasing, all factors that support the housing market,” Yu says.

Read the full report – Ontario Housing Outlook 2017-2019

About Central 1

With offices in Vancouver, Mississauga and Toronto, Central 1 holds on balance sheet approximately $18 billion in assets. We provide wholesale financial products, trust services, payment processing solutions and direct banking services to almost 300 credit unions and institutional clients from coast to coast.

In addition, Central 1 is the primary liquidity manager, payments provider and trade association for our 42 member credit unions in B.C. and 70 Ontario member credit unions. Our members represent a consumer-oriented, full-service retail financial system that collectively serves 3.3 million members and holds more than $118.8 billion in assets. For more information, visit central1.com.

Contacts

Bryan Yu
Deputy Chief Economist
Central 1 Credit Union
T 604.742.5346  or 1.800.661.6813 ext. 5346
E byu@central1.com

Art Chamberlain
Media Relations Manager
Central 1 Credit Union
T 905.282.8534 or 1.800.661.6813 ext. 8534
E achamberlain@central1.com